LJ user kozenko - Andrey Kozenko, journalist for the Russian daily Kommersant - wrote this (RUS) about the legacy of the outgoing president, Vladimir Putin:

[…] I feel all but indifferent about Putin's departure. Nothing to thank him for. He ruled the way he could, according to the mentality. Many people liked it.

But still, there is something to this phrase: “Former Russian president Vladimir Putin”… mmmmm :) […]

In an earlier post, Kozenko explained (RUS) his decision to take part in the Dissenters' March in Moscow on May 6 (his thoughts on what the rally turned out to be like were featured in yesterday's Global Voices translation):

[…] I don't like the [Soviet-style] “rapturous and long ovations” [to Russia's leaders] on TV. I don't like news styled as propaganda.

I don't like aggressive patriotism and hostile rhetoric.

I feel dirty when I hear of a certain governor who was sweating as he sat with a suitcase of cash in the reception area of the head of a certain state-controlled corporation - in order to have his region included into some [state-funded development] program.

I no longer find it funny that in my native region half of the officials have been sent to jail for corruption. Especially, considering there's an opinion that they were jailed not because they deserved it, but due to clan war. Because, basically, they all deserve to be jailed.

I really dislike it that all my friends and acquaintances involved in business [may be jailed all too easily]. And they're saying that they try [as hard as they can] to do their work in accordance with the law.

Anyway, I do have the reasons to dislike this regime. And I want to vote for the opposition. And I don't really understand why the regime has annihilated all the oppositional politicians who could have been representing my interests. I'm not even saying they should make up the parliamentary majority. I just want for them to be there and to have influence. But they aren't […]. And I'm presented not even with a choice, but with something given: forget about it, stop caring. We are experiencing a consumer boom, enjoy it. Buy yourself something. Or, well, go to the Dissenters' March if you are so oppositional.

But I don't want to go to this march at all, with people I don't consider close. One of them […] is a writer [Eduard Limonov], the other is a chess player [Garry Kasparov]. I don't like this form of protest, I don't like to chant slogans and don't know how to. But, I repeat, I have no choice. Either I go, or I stop caring about what's going on.

Here is the last comment to this post:

stas_ya:

How about everything exactly [the way you describe it], but there's no money as well? And [no hope of getting some in the future.] What consumer boom are we talking about? The only thing left is angry apathy - would make it neither the [protest] march, nor to a store…

Back to Medvedev's inauguration: LJ user dolboeb (Anton Nossik) was so impressed with the traffic situation in Moscow on Wednesday that he decided to write a letter (RUS) to the new Russian president:

[…] Dear Dmitry Anatolyevich,

Congratulations on assuming your new post. I hope you enjoyed the ceremony as much as I did. I thank you for providing me with a rare opportunity to see daytime Moscow without traffic jams. Please consider holding inaugurations once every week, preferably on Wednesdays. I think this could contribute to solving many traffic problems of the Russian capital. […]

Judging by this popular “bold/hairy algorithm” cartoon - posted, among others, by LJ user tumbochka - Medvedev is to have more than one inauguration in the next few decades (if not weeks):

Soviet/Russian leaders: Lenin (bold), Stalin (hairy), Khrushchev (bold), Brezhnev (hairy), Andropov (bold), Chernenko (hairy), Gorbachev (bold), Yeltsin (hairy), Putin (bold), Medvedev (hairy)… Putin (bold), Medvedev (hairy), Putin (bold), Medvedev (hairy), Putin (bold), Medvedev (hairy)

For those readers that have no idea where the Caucasus is, The Reference Frame provides a handy color-coded guide.

Look at the map. Start with the yellow disk, a global perspective. We are discussing the piece of land (blue rectangle) in between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea. There are Caucasus Mountains over there as well as many cacophonic pairs of nations. The region is as dangerous for the peace as the Balkans on the opposite side of the Black Sea. […]

This is definitely the case in Georgia where tensions with Russia have increased to the extent that Reuters reports that the battle of words between Tbilisi and Moscow might yet turn into war over the breakaway and defacto independent [Georgian] region of Abkhazia.

The increased tension follows last month's apparent downing of a Georgian drone allegedly by a Russian MiG-29 and reports that Russian troops are being sent to Abkhazia in case of a Georgian attempt to re-take the territory by force. As Hot Air explains, Russia and Georgia are playing brinkmanship again, but this time the consequences are uncertain.

Russia and Georgia have played at brinksmanship for quite a while, and while neither of them would benefit from a war, the tussle over Abkhazia might inadvertently set one in motion. Abkhazia is actually a secondary issue for Russia, although not a false premise for their policy. They see Abkhazia as within their sphere of influence, but Putin really wants an end to NATO expansion at the expense of Russia.

[…]

Both Moscow and Tbilisi are playing hardball over Russian attempts to keep Georgia within its political orbit. It demonstrates that the collapse of the Soviet Union unleashed consequences that have not yet fully played out, and that the “end of history” was anything but. If Putin and his hardliners insist on maintaining a quasi-empire in the breakaway republics, and if the West continues to counter those impulses, a flash point seems almost inevitable.

The Oil and the Glory, the blog of former Wall Street Journal and New York Times journalist Steve Levine who has covered Central Asia and the Caucasus for over a decade, wonders why the situation has emerged now.

What is Russia's move really all about? Surely it's not concern over Abkhaz security — a Georgian military attack in order to bring the region back into the Georgian fold verges on ludicrous, mainly since Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili knows he would lose, either to the Abkhaz themselves or a predictable Russian counter-offensive.

Is Putin simply demonstrating yet again that Russia won't be pushed around? Is he bestowing an image-building conflict on his successor, in the way that Chechnya built up Putin's own nationalist credentials when he took power in 1999 with a popularity rating of 2%?

Others are also asking why the increased tensions are happening, but from a different perspective. TOL Georgia, for example, thinks it is not coincidental that parliamentary elections are due to be held in the former Soviet republic later this month. Tensions with Russia usually result in increased support at home for the Georgian authorities, it says.

If there are elections in Georgia, you may bet some major scandal will take place with Russia — most probably over the breakaway regions of Abkhazia or South Ossetia.

There was a spy scandal before the elections in 2006; then there was President Saakashvili’s brave intervention in a brawl in Gunmukhuri camp and finally now there is the downing of the Georgian drone and Russia’s decision to legalize ties with Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

[…]

It is not to say of course that Russian and Georgian authorities somehow act in accord. No, far from that. Just that Russians are consistently aggressive and if they wanted to see Saakashvili leave Georgia, they would not pitch him the major international incidents right before the elections.

Registan, however, considers that the latest Georgian-Russian spat has more to do with other factors, and not least support from the West for Kosovo's Independence as well as problems with Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO).

This is probably tied to Georgia’s quest to block Russia’s membership in the WTO. Georgia has suspended its bilateral talks with Russia, which are a condition of Russia’s WTO ascension, on the condition that Moscow halt its growing ties with the separatist governments in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. And now Russia steps forward with talks of Georgia invading Abkhazia.

It’s not that the timing is too convenient, which it is, but that is might not matter. Both Georgia and Russia have a habit of badly overplaying their hand in the battle for sympathetic ears in the West. In this case, Russia has a particularly weak hand—its fondness for separatist movements appears not to extend to either Kosovo, or Chechnya.

Foreign Policy Passport isn't too concerned about the possibility of war between Georgia and Russia, although it does acknowledge that the situation could get out of hand. Indeed, it quotes one Russian commentator: “Recall how World War I began. […] This scenario could be repeated in the Caucasus,” but still concludes that the escalation is likely just belligerent posturing.

Despite the inflammatory rhetoric, it still seems unlikely to me that Georgia would actually go to war with its much larger and militarily superior neighbor. Since Georgia is looking for NATO protection and Russia wants keep Georgia out of NATO at any cost, the war of words seems tailored for an audience in Washington and Brussels. Both sides have a vested interest in the rest of the world perceiving the threat of war as genuine.

In a volatile region such as the South Caucasus where conflict always runs the risk of overspilling into neighboring countries and destabilizing more than just the immediate area, let's hope that remains the case.

LJ user drugoi, a top-ranking Russian blogger, posted photos as well as this description (RUS) of “the march, sort of”:

[photo]

This evening, by the monument to Griboedov at Chistye Prudy, 4,625 journalists and 8,416 policemen were waiting for the participants of the Dissenters' March, who, however, showed up from the opposite direction.

[photo]

A small group of 15-20 people gathered at Pokrovka and moved along Chistye Prudy towards the subway station, accompanied by a few photographers and cameramen.

[photo]

The police saw the group from afar and stopped it near the monument to a Kazakh [folk singer]. Just as I heard “grrrr… self-control and calmness… grhm-hm-gr…” coming through static noise from one riot cop's walkie-talkie, the opposition [protester] walking down the path were attacked from all sides.

[more photos and text]

LJ user kozenko posted an epitaph (RUS) to the Other Russia:

There was no Dissenters' March. The leaders vanished, and the activists carried out several small-scale and brief public disturbances in the city.

Well, the Other Russia, congratulations on your demise. Last year, it was fun with you, and even interesting. And at the start it even seemed that there was a future. But the finale turned out to be - forgive me - boring and embarrassing.

Amen.

Here is one exchange from the comment section to this post:

marchenk:

This post sounds like something written by an offended and disappointed viewer. As if you had bought tickets for this show. And the troupe ran away with you money. :)

kozenko:

This posts sounds like something written by an offended and disappointed person. Very disappointed, because none of the politicians in this country represents his interests. […]