The presidential election of the Republic of Korea was held on the 19th of December. While the election ended in the predicted result to many, it shocked others. In particular, the results of the election showed that some active netizens’ opinions didn’t influence this election compared to the last presidential election. After the election, netizens are busy analyzing the result of the presidential election, and the roles and influence of the internet.
A netizen questions why the internet didn’t influence the presidential election this time.
인터넷이 대선에 영향을 미치지 못한 이유
대선이 끝나고 가장 흥미를 끌었던 것 중 하나가 인터넷 포탈 사이트의 대선 영향력이었다. …각자의 논리와 의견으로 논객들의 지지는 정치방과 자유방에 넘쳐났다. 그 중 몇몇의 논객들은 문국현 후보에 대한 지지가 많았던 것도 사실이다. 반대로 이명박 후보나 이회창 후보 지지자들은 꼬릿말이나 토막 글을 통해 아고라를 도배한 경우도 있었다. 또 다른 논객들은 정동영 지지를 선언을 하고 자신의 생각을 인터넷에 풀어 의사 표명을 했다.
하루에도 수십만명이 다녀가는 아고라의 논객들의 논리들이 이번 대선에 큰 영향을 미치지 못했다는 것이다. 수 많은 시간을 투자해서 저마다의 생각과 의견을 역설했지만 정작 표로는 옮겨가지 못했다는 사실이다. 2002년 노무현 지지자 모임인 노사모와 지지자들은 인터넷에서 막강한 힘을 발휘하여 노무현 대통령을 만들어 내는 일등 공신 역할을 했다. 지난 대선과 이번 대선의 차이점이 과연 어디에서 온 것일까.
나는 여기서 크게 두 가지를 말하고 싶다. 그 첫째는 한나라 당의 온라인 상 선거법 위반 법을 만들어 논의 장을 촉소시키고 위축시킨 일이다. 경선부터 선관위는 계속 인터넷에 재갈을 물려 얼어붙게 만들었다. 때로는 일부 논객이나 동영상을 올린 사람들이 검찰 수사를 받아야 하는 사태도 일어났다. 이런 사건을 볼 때 당연히 대선 기간동안 인터넷은 그 영향력을 발휘하는데 한계를 들어낼 수밖에 없었다…
두 번째는 노무현 대통령처럼 눈길을 끄는 후보들이 없었다는 것이다. 이번 대선에서 가장 아고라에 많이 거론된 인물들을 나열에 보면 문국현, 정동영,이명박,이회창,허경영 정도였다. 그 중 문국현 후보를 지지하는 작문의 글이 가장 많이 올라왔다. 물론 앞에서 말한 것들 중 이명박 후보나 이회창 후보을 지지하는 사람들의 토막글이나 꼬릿말이 결코 적지 않았다. 정동영 후보 지지 글 역시 많았다. 이런 상황에서 보면 문국현 후보가 선전을 했어야 했다. 그런데 6퍼센트를 넘지 못했고 허경영 후보 역시 온라인 상에서 시끌시끌하게 만든 후보 중에 한 명이었는데 10만 표도 나오지 않았다.
문 후보 표의 한계는 너무 늦게 정치 선언을 했다는 것이 원인이다. 그의 이미지는 결코 나쁘지 않았다. 누가 뭐라해도 경력이나 살아온 과정으로 볼 때 네티즌들의 눈길을 잡을만 했다. 그런데 정치 선언이 너무 늦다보니 기존 정치 벽에 부딪혀 그 이미지를 활용하지 못했다. 적어도 고 건 씨가 정치 행보를 할 때나 정운찬 씨가 대선을 놓고 저울질 할 때 대선 참여 선언을 했다면 아주 양상이 달났을 것이다. 고 건 씨나 정운찬 씨가 결국 중도에 포기를 했고 그 선에서 그들을 지지했던 대다수의 표를 잡고 여론조사에서도 높게 나온 지지율로 유리한 단일화 가능성으로 만들 수 있었다. 정치는 타이밍이 중요하다고 말하지만 너무 오랫동안 뜸을 들인 결과가 오늘의 표심이 된 것이다.
정 후보는 반듯한 이미지가 오히려 독이 되었다. 산전수전 다 겪은 백전노장의 모습 보다는 귀공자 스타일이 강해 유권자의 눈길을 잡지 못했다….그뿐만 아니라 그가 걸어 온 길이 너무나 평범하다(고생을 하지 않았다)는 단점이 있다. 앵커를 거쳐 최다 득표 국회의원 그리고 여당의 당 의장 통일부 장관까지 거치는 동안 강력한 이미지를 심어주지 못했다…
이런 두 가지 근거로 볼 때 찻잔 속에 태풍이었다. 인터넷 안에서만 태풍이 불었지 결코 세상으로 나가지 못했다. 인터넷에서 일어났던 지지자들의 힘은 밖으로 나가 2002년 노사모나 노무현 대통령 지지자들처럼 자발적인 힘으로 만들어 냈어야 했다. …
One of the most interesting things after the presidential election was the influence of the presidential election by the internet portal sites… What I felt was that compared to 2002, opinions to support each candidate were more various. Their support, based on their own theories and opinions, filled internet sites: politics rooms and freedom rooms. It is true that there were many supporters for Moon Kook Hyun. On the contrary, supporters of Lee Myung Bak and Lee Hoe Chang just used opinions of posts. Others announced support for Chung Dong Young and expressed their opinions.
However, theories and opinions of netizens who used Agora (internet section which several hundred thousand netizens use every day) didn’t influence the election. Even though they invested so much time to show their thoughts and to emphasize their opinions, it didn’t influence voting. In 2002, Nosamo, the club to support Roh Moo Hyun, and his supporters made use of the power of the internet well, making it the most significant means to make Roh Moo Hyun the president. What is the difference between this election and the last election?
I would like to point out two things. The first is that the Grand National Party made a new election regulation, so that opinion places became limited. The National Election Commission froze the freedom of the internet. Sometimes, people who expressed their opinions and video clips had to be investigated. Therefore, the Internet had limitations on exerting influence during the election period…
Second, there were no candidates as noticeable as Roh Moo Hyun. Ranking who was mentioned in Agora the most, it was Moon Kook Hyun, Chung Dong Young, Lee Myung Bak, Lee Hoe Chang, and Heo Kyung Young. Moon Kook Hyun had posts to support him the most…. Therefore, Moon Kook Hyun was supposed to be supported the most. But his votes weren’t more than 6 percent. Heo Kyung Young got a lot of attention, but couldn’t get more than one hundred thousand votes.
The limitation of Moon Kook Hyun was that he had the political announcement way too late. His image was not bad. His career and background could grasp netizens’ attentions enough. But his political announcement was way too late to make use of his image…. Chung Young Dong has a straight image. It rather gave him disadvantages. His noble style could not grab voters’ attentions…. In addition, his path was way too common (didn’t go through hardships). Through careers as TV news host, the most voted National Assemblyman, and the Minister of Unification, he didn’t implant any strong image….
Based on these two reasons, it was like a thunderstorm in a tea cup. There was a thunderstorm on the internet, but it has never come out. The power of internet supporters should have had to make their own like Roh Moo Hyun’s supporters in 2002….
It is commonly said that the reason why the conservative party took power again after 10 years is is complaints about the poor government and unstable economy. Many netizens reflect on the continual criticism from media the since Roh Moo Hyun took over the government.
이명박 당선자가 대통령이 되면서 한 말이 있죠. “이제 경제는 반드시 꼭 살리겠습니다. 열심히 하겠습니다.”
전 궁금합니다. 도대체 얼마나 경제가 안좋길래 그렇게 사람들이 경제에 목말라 하는지 궁금합니다.지금까지 대한민국이 살아오면서 보수정당 지배하에 정말로 경기가 좋아서 쓸 돈도 많고 돈도 잘 모이고 있다 라고 생각이 든 시기가 있을까요? 왜 항상 우리나라는 경제가 안좋다 안좋다 불평만 하는 건지 모르겠습니다.
1970년대를 지나면서 우리나라는 고성장을 합니다. 그래서 끼니 떼우기도 바빳던 국민들은 이제 끼니 걱정은 안하게 되었습니다. (국민소득 100불 -> 1900불).전두환, 노태우를 지나면서 1980년대에는 산업사회로 완전히 접어들게 됩니다. (국민소득 2000불 -> 7000불). 하지만 문민정부에 들어서면서 IMF 라는 큰 타격을 맞았습니다. 국민소득이 노태우정부 임기말로 돌아간 것입니다.(12000불->7000불). 하지만 김대중정부가 수습에 들어갔고 그결과 김대중정부의 임기 말에 12000불까지 도래하게 됩니다.
자이제 마지막 노무현 정부는 어떨까요? 곧 20000불 시대에 돌입한다고 합니다. 증시는 노무현 임기초 1000포인트 밑을 하회하던 것이 임기중에 2000포인트를 일순간 돌파하고 지금은 1900포인트에서 움직입니다. 무역수준은 대한민국 역사상 최대의 무역흑자를 기록하면서 외환보유가 사상 최고입니다.(2400억불) 그외에 국가신용등급 A1(사상최고)를 기록하기도 했죠.
그런데 왜 우리는 못사냐구요? 왜 체감경기는 나아지지 않았을까요? 저도 궁금합니다. 하지만 생각해 봅시다. 우리가 지금까지 50년의 역사중 산업사회로 넘어가는 70년대를 제외한 남은 약 25년의 시간중 정말 경기가 괜찮아서 살기가 참 편해졌다. 라고 생각한 시간이 얼마나 될까요?
서울에서 여기저기 다닐때 택시를 장거리 이용하는 사람이 얼마나 됩니까? 재래시장에서 제사용품 모두 장만하는 사람이 예전처럼 많습니까? 내수 경제는 이미 크게 변하고 있습니다. 정보화 시대를 맞고 소모품도 기업화된 유통업체들이 들어오면서 크게 변했습니다. 변화에 따라가지 않고 그대로 하던일 묵묵히 하던사람들이 느끼는 경제는 당연히 그들에게서 등돌리고 있다고 느낄 수 밖에 없습니다. 인터넷 쇼핑으로 편해진 소비자에게 재래시장에서 물건사라는 것과 편리해진 대중교통 대신에 비싼 택시를 이용하라는 것은 말이 안되죠. 그런데 왜 택시기사랑 재래시장에 가서 요즘 경기가 어떠세요 라고 묻는 언론을 보면 참으로 한심할 뿐입니다.
중산층을 기준으로 얘기 했을 때, 과연 우리나라 중산층에 사는 사람들의 삶이 어떠할까요?
개개인마다 핸드폰을 들고다니며 한달에 4인가족기준 100달러(10만원)이상을 통신요금으로 사용하고,
한 가구마다 차가 있으며 서서히 외제차도 들어오고 있습니다.사람들이 명품과 브랜드상품을 찾고 있으며 실제로 소비도 하고 있습니다.집집마다 TV는 물론 컴퓨터와 초고속 인터넷은 당연히 써야 하는 것이고…지금 이것이 우리나라 현실입니다. 우리나라 사람들은 5억을 적은 돈으로 봅니다. 이는 현재 급속도로 올라버린 부동산 가격때문일 것입니다. 5억이면 서울에 아파트 하나 사버리면 바닥나버리는 돈이니까요. 하지만 우리나라 부동산 가격은 지금 정상적이지 않다는 것을 누구나 다 알 것입니다.
지금 지방에 아파트 미분양 사태가 속속들이 일어나는 것은 뉴스를 통해 매번 공개가 됩니다.
가격은 올라도 실거래수가 줄어들었다는 이야기는 이미 몇해전부터 나왔습니다.드디어 수요와 공급이 맞지 않아 거래가 줄어들고 버블의 마지막 단계에 와버린 것입니다.
노무현 정부는 이런 사태를 우려해 집값상승에 제동을 많이 걸었습니다. 다행히 어느정도의 효과가 있었기에 최근들어 집값상승이 서서히 완화되고 있는 것입니다.
과연 이런 상황에서 노무현 정부가 도대체 무엇을 잘못 했는지 콕집어 말해 줄 사람이 있냐 하는 것입니다.
역사상 최고의 무역흑자와 투자환경조성, 남북한 화해무드 정착, 부동산 제동 등의 여러가지 업적을 남겼는데도….왜 이렇게 비난 받는지 전 도무지 이해가 가지 않습니다.
이제 이명박 당선자를 두고 보겠습니다…..
하지만 그저 경쟁과 실패한 이론인 아담스미스의 보이지않는 손을 믿으며
새로운 세계의 경제 패러다임에서 멀어질까봐 참으로 두렵습니다.
Since the 1970s, our country has been growing fast. People who were busy managing to live don’t have to worry about it so much anymore. (per capita income $100 $1,900). After Chun Doo Hwan and Roh Tae Woo, we stepped into industrial society in the 1980s (income $2,000$7,000). But entering the civilian government, we faced the IMF. The GDP went back to the late government of Roh Tae Woo ($12,0007,000). But when the Kim Dae Joong government started controlling, it became $12,000 in his late government.
Then how about the Roh Moo Hyun government? We will reach $20,000 soon. In the early government of Roh Moo Hyun, the stock market was under 1,000 points. But during his government, it broke 2,000 points and now it’s about 1,900 points.
For the first time in the history of the Republic of Korea, the profit of trade is recorded the highest and foreign currency reserves are also the highest (US$240 billion). In addition, Korean credit is recorded A1 (the highest in history of the Repbulic of Korea). But why do we live poorly? Why does confidence not get better? I am wondering too. But think about it. During 25 years, except for the 1970s when we had just entered industrial society, among 50 years, how long have we thought that the economy gets better?
How many people use taxis to move around Seoul for long distance travel? Are still a lot of people using ancestors; worshiping goods in wet markets? The domestic economy has changed so much. Welcoming the IT period, consumption goods have changed so much since enterprised distributors entered. People who haven’t changed the jobs they have done without catching up with changes can’t help but feel that the economy is turning against them. It doesn’t make sense to force people who are comfortable with internet shopping and use convenient public transportation to purchase products in wet markets and to use expensive taxis. I don’t understand why the media always ask about current economy to taxi drivers or sellers at wet markets.
When we talk about the standard of the middle class, how about their lives? Each individual has his or her celluar phone. Every month, the middle class of four family members uses US 100dollars (100,000 won) for communication fee. Every household has a car and foreign cars gradually appear. People look for expensive and brand products, and consume money for them. Every house has TV, computer, and high speed internet….
This is the reality of our place. We think that 5 hundred million won is not a lot. It is because of the rapid increase of real estate. That money can be used up to purchase an apartment in Seoul. But everyone knows the price of the real estate here is not normal.
In the countryside, there are quite a lot of unsold apartments, the news talks about. Even though the price has gone up, the number selling has been lessening since several years ago. In the end, we face the last step, bubble, in which supply and demand don’t match. Being concerned about it, the Roh government tried to control the increase of housing price. Unfortunately, there has been effective gradually and the increase of the housing fee will go down. Looking at these situations, nobody can say what the Roh government has done wrong.
I really don’t understand why he is criticized even though he has achieved the highest profit of the trade and investing environment, settled down the reconciliation mood between North and South Korea, and contried real estate.
Let’s see Lee Myung Bak… But I am afraid that we might be far away from the economy paradigm of the new world that believe competition and Adam Smith’s invisible hand, which was a failed theory.
Or some netizens compare the achievement of the Roh Government based on domestic and overseas media.
조중동과 해외 언론은 왜 항상 반대?
비슷한 시기.. 한국경제는 2군데로 나눠서 운영한 것이 아닌데 해외 언론과 국내 굴지 언론사들은 큰 시각차이를 보인다. 해외 언론이 보이지도 않는 동방의 작은 나라에게 잘 보이고 싶어서 아부라도 떨었을까?
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<3대 악재 닥치면 내년 성장 1.9%로 추락> (조선일보 2006. 10,30.자)
< 위기 맞은 경제, 위기의식이 없다> (중앙일보 2006, 4.28.자)
< 현 정부 임기 중 경기회복 어려워> (동아일보 2006. 12.8.자)
< 환란 때와 '환율하락-경상수지 악화' 닮았네…> (동아일보2006.12.14.자)“한국경제가 여전히 성장견인력을 잃지 않은 채 탄력을 유지하고 있다”(2006. 11.30.자 미국 월스트리트 저널)
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< 원화강세는 원화만이 아시아의 성장을 반영하기 때문>(월스트리트 저널 2006. 2.7.자)
< 서울로 향해, 미래를 몰래 훔쳐보라>(영국 더 데일리 텔레그래프 2006. 1.26.자)==============================================================================
참여 정부시대에 들어서 경제 엉망 되었다고 하는 사람들이 봐 주어야 할 경제 성적표들이 있다.종합주가지수 - 2003년 500선에서 3배가 넘는 1,800선 돌파
수출 - 고유가와 원화가치 상승(환율하락)에도 불구, 세계 11번째로 수출 3,000억 달러 돌파
경상수지 - 612억 달러 흑자(2003∼2006)
외환보유액 - 2,439억 달러. 참여정부 들어 2배로 증가. 일본, 중국, 러시아, 대만에 이어 세계 5위
경제성장률 - 참여정부 4년간 평균 4.3%로 OECD 30개국 가운데 9위
언론 자유지수 - 03년 이후 상승 2005, 2006년 아시아 1위, 2007년 아시아 2위…이번에 한국경제가 금새라도 살아날 것처럼 이야기 하는 조중동과는 달리, 영국의 가디언지는 다른 논평을 한다. 한반도 긴장증대로 외국투자 감소 예상 같은…
왜 해외에서 보는 눈과 국내의 거대 언론은 늘 다른 평가를 내리는가? 국내 언론! 좀 솔직해졌음 좋겠다. 아마도 그럴 생각 없겠지만………
Similar time… the Korean economy is not managed in two separate divisions, but domestic and overseas media have different perspectives. Do you think that overseas media try to suck up to a small country in the east?
With three disheartening factors, economic growth will go down to 1.9% (Chosun Newspaper 2006. 10. 30)
Economy in crisis, there is no consciousness of crisis (Joong-ang Newspaper 2006.4.28)
During the current government, it is difficult to recover the economy (Dong-a Newspaper 2006. 12. 8)
Similarities between economy crisis, and ‘fall in exchange rates-aggravation of a current account… (Dong-a Newspaper 2006.12.14)
The Korean economy is not losing the pulling capacity of growth and maintains flexibility (2006. 11.30 Wallstreet Journal)
Big expectations about the recovery of Korea (Financial Times, U.K. 2006. 1.16)
The reason of the strong tone of won currency is because the Korean currency reflects the growth of Asia (Wallstreet Journal 2006. 2.7)
Toward Seoul, steal a glance at the future (The Daily Telegraph, U.K. 2006. 1.26)
There are economic results that I would like to show to people who emphasize that the current government destroyed the economy.
The composite price index of stocks – surplus of more than 1,800 points compared to 500 points in 2003.
Export – regardless of high oil price and increase of the value of the Korean currency (fall of exchange rates), as the 11th ranking country, it generated exports more than 300 billion dollars
Balance of current account – surplus of 61.2 billion dollars (2003-2006)
The amount of foreign currency reserves – 243 billion dollars. Two times increased under the current government. The 5th ranking after Japan, China, Russia, and Taiwan.
Economic growth – 4.3 % during four years of the current government. The ninth ranking among OECD 30 nations.
Index of media freedom – improvement since 2003. The first ranking of Asian nations in 2005 and 2006, and the second ranking in 2007.
Compared that Cho-Joong-Dong analyze that the Korean economy will be alive soon, the Gaurdian in the U.K. has a different comment, in which foreign investments will decrease due to increase in tension of the Korean peninsula. Why are domestic and foreign media diffenret? Domestic media! I hope that they are more honest! Maybe they are not willing to do so….
This is the second post from Bahrain this week; the first covered various celebrations, and demonstrations. In this post we'll be examining the official population statistics, hearing about a frustrating experience in Saudi Arabia, seeing what role graffiti can play in political mobilisation, and acknowledging the debt owed to South Asians in the Gulf.
We start with a photo of some flamingoes by Yagoob, taken in the south of the island:
Photo credit: Yagoob
Not adding up
Last week we mentioned a ‘misunderstanding' regarding the size of Bahrain's population; this time we have LuLu questioning the government's population statistics:
So recently the government made an interesting non-announcement in parliament. Apparently, according to a statement by the Central [dis]Informatics Organization (CIO) to parliament, Bahrain's population finally reached a million. Hurrah! Now, setting aside the question as to why we remain in the dark when it comes to official statistical figures of the CIO, something just doesn't add up…
If we go back to 2001, the official statistics were as follows:Total population = 650,604
Bahraini = 405,667 Non-Bahraini = 244,937
Total population growth rate of 2.7% Bahraini population growth rate: 2.5%[Note that the Middle East growth rate was 3.62 in 2001]
Fast forward to 2007:
Total Population = 1,046,814
Bahraini = 529,446 Non-Bahraini = 517,368
Total population growth rate = 10.1% Bahraini population growth rate = 5.1%[…] This can only mean one thing. Yes. God created 60,000 Bahrainis just like he created Adam and Eve, for no such number can possibly be born here by accident. Otherwise, we may actually have to believe that the government is lying when it says it is not naturalizing all the people we see mushrooming around us. Either way, even this number does not make much sense if we consider that the CIO itself had declared the 2006 population growth figure of 2.6%.
Fill ‘em up!
Gardens of Sand is doing some calculations of her own - trying to work out if she should see the proverbial glass as half-empty or half-full:
Great professors:
half full - the label summed it up, who knew learning can be immensely enjoyable?
half empty- my instructors asked me what and where Bahrain is, then proceeded to sarcastically tell me that it must be a great place to live followed by his surprise that Bahraini women are allowed to drive?!!! Even the educated are ignorant!
In the neighbourhood
Bahraini women are indeed allowed to drive – but of course Saudi women are not. Soul Search writes about a recent shopping trip to Saudi Arabia that left her feeling distinctly unimpressed:
We decided to do a little Eid shopping in our friendly neighbor the K of SA. The overpowering stench of stupidity did not leave my nostrils since the second we set foot on the causeway. Here are 5 reasons why I will not be travelling across the causeway unless I absolutely had to:
1. You can't have a decent two hour shopping spree without having the whole shop shut down on you for prayers. Don't they realize that people should be given the freedom to worship and not have worship shoved down their throats 5 times a day?
2. Store managers get jumpy and nervous and would rather kick you out of their shop as soon as they can, than to have the religious police close down their shops!
3. If you thought traffic in Bahrain was a nightmare, think again. Many of our neighborly drivers prefer to jump a red light or claim your lane as their own at any time they choose.
4. There are absolutely no changing rooms for ladies in any retail outlets, even my 5 year old daughter was not allowed to try on her clothes anywhere, because “she's a female”. Outrageous!
5. It hurts me to see how women are totally inferior to men on many a level. They are treated in a humiliating way, that I would not be able to take if (God forbid) I had to ever live there!!
The bare facts
Another blogger went shopping before Eid; CeCe is working out what clothes make her feel comfortable:
Ever since I wore the Hijab 6 months ago, I wear with it the Abaya wherever I go. It made my life simple and way easier. But since Eid is coming, my friend suggested I wear something “different”. I just came back from shopping for Eid. I bought me a long skirt with a cute shirt and jacket to go along. I tried putting the whole outfit together (with the Hijab) and walked around the shop. It felt like I was walking around naked!
Fighting back
Still in the arena of issues affecting women, Khalid discusses sexual harassment:
With gratitude
Hafez Bucheery is thinking about the development of the Gulf societies in general; he writes about the role South Asians, specifically Indians, have played over the years:
The writing on the wall
Rayyash examines the significance of ‘wall journalism':
We end with another photo of the flamingoes. More from Bahrain next week!
Photo credit: Yagoob
3 comments · »»It's been a star-struck week in the French-speaking Moroccan bloggosphere, famous international figures being a primary focus of discussion. Several bloggers wrote about the happenings at the seventh edition of the International Marrakesh Film Festival, most notably on the reception there of American director Martin Scorcese and some famous Egyptian film stars. (more…)
3 comments · »»
Saudi Arabia added yet another accolade to its freedom of speech record by arresting its first blogger. Fouad Al Farhan, considered by many as being the dean of Saudi bloggers for being among the first to blog in his country using his real name, has been arrested in Jeddah. No further news is available for the reasons for his detention.
The Arab Blogger's Observatory announced the arrest as follows:
Meanwhile, Saudi bloggers were quick to react to the arrests. Mashi Sa7
Another blogger, Al Qaed (the leader) shares his thoughts on Al Farhan in this post. He writes:
Al Farhan blogs in Arabic here. Global Voices Online had previously conducted an interview with him here.
18 comments · »»Following on recent moves by the government to regulate the Internet, plans for regulation in other areas of online communication have been moving ahead apace in Japan. On December 10th, the Japanese government requested mobile companies NTT Docomo, KDDI, Softbank and Willcom to strictly filter web content for minors [ja], filtering which would block access to forums, chat rooms, and social networks for users under the age of 18 and potentially put an end to popular youth-oriented web services.
Meanwhile, on December 18th, the Private Music and Video Recording Subcommittee of Japan's Agency for Cultural Affairs convened a meeting at which they pushed for a ban on private downloads of material designated as illegal. While reproduction of copyrighted material for personal use has up until now been considered legal (only uploads being illegal), the subcommittee has pressed for this policy, expressed in article 30 of Japan's Copyright Law, to be revised to outlaw downloads as well [ja].
The decision to push ahead with the outlaw of personal downloads openly goes against opinions expressed in a record-setting 7500 comments submitted by citizens, who reportedly opposed changes to article 30 in large numbers. Economist and blogger Ikeda Nobuo commented on the implications of this fact in two entries posted on December 22nd. In the first post, he writes:
先日、開催された私的録音録画小委員会の第15回会合において、文化庁から「パブリックコメント等の反対意見を踏まえた上でも、違法複製物からの複製は30条の適用除外とするのは不可避」との発言がなされたとのことについては、すでに報道等もなされているとおりです。
中間答申について行われたパブリックコメントで利用者等から多くの反対の意見が出され、全体としてみても反対意見が多数を占めることになりました。しかし、パブリックコメントで出された疑問点について答えることもなく、かつ、この結論にいたった経緯や議論の透明性が欠如している、明らかに民意を無視した改正作業が行われようとしています。
The following entry posted shortly thereafter delves deeper into the economics of the “illegal download”:
まず基本的な問題は、日本レコード協会などのいう「違法着うたによる被害が深刻だ」という今回の改正の前提とされる事実が、今まで一度も定量的に証明されたことがないということだ。ダウンロードして試聴して、CDを買うケースもあるだろうし、コンサートに行くケースもあるし、アルバムを買う(あるいは有料ダウンロードする)ケースもある。この場合、消費者も音楽家も利益を得る。他方、買うつもりだった人が違法ダウンロードで代替した場合は、レコード会社は機会損失をこうむる。したがってレコ協の主張が成立するためには、
違法ダウンロードによる音楽家と企業の機会損失>音楽が広く聞かれることによる消費者の効用と音楽家の利益(*)
という不等式が成り立つことを実証データで証明しなければならない。しかし前にも書いたように、経済学の実証研究では、これは証明されていないのである。特に、(*)式の両辺に音楽家が入っていることに注意してほしい。彼らにとっては、利益と損失のどちらが大きいかは先験的にはわからない。実証研究でも示されているように、マイナーな音楽家にとっては利益のほうが大きい可能性が高い。
First, the basic problem is that the premise for the current revision, the fact, as stated by the Recording Industry Association of Japan and so on, that “the injury from illegal song ringtones is serious”, has up to now not even once been proven quantitatively. There would seem to be cases of people who download [music], have a listen to it, and then buy a CD, cases of people who then go to a concert, and cases of people who then buy the album (or pay to download it). In such cases, both the consumer and the musician make a profit. On the other hand, when the person intending to buy [the music] is substituted for someone downloading [the music] illegally, the record company loses an opportunity. Therefore in order for the Record Industry Association to make its claim, the inequality:
Loss of opportunities to musicians and corporations due to illegal downloads [is greater than] Benefits to consumers and profits to musicians due to music being listened to more widely (*)
must be substantiated with actual data. However, as I wrote earlier, this has not been proven by experimental studies in economics. In particular, note that musicians are included in both sides of equation (*). For these musicians, whether profits are greater or losses are greater is a priori unknown. As experimental research has shown, there is a high possibility that for minor artists, profits are greater.
今回の改正では、「情を知って」という条件や刑事罰は課さないという妥協もはかられているが、小倉秀夫氏も指摘するように、文化庁のねらいは、従来の違法複製機器を売る業者を取り締まることから一歩進んで、個人の私的複製も取り締まることにある。したがって単なる違法化では個人の自宅に踏み込むこともできないので、刑事罰を課して警察が強制捜査する方向に強化されるおそれが強い。
こうした違法化が社会的に与える萎縮効果は、実際の被害よりもはるかに大きいというのが、最近の行動経済学の教えるところだ。それは世界の証券市場の1.4%にすぎないサブプライムローンが、全世界をゆるがす金融危機に発展したことでもわかる。「ダウンロード違法化」と聞いただけで、コンプライアンスにうるさい企業は、オフィスからYouTubeなどへのアクセスをブロックするだろう。そしてこういう新しいビジネスの市場が萎縮することによって、新しい企業も出てこなくなる。
文化庁はこれまでも、同じような失敗を繰り返してきた。検索のインデックスをつけることを著作権法違反としたため、日本に検索サーバを置くことはできない。世界でも先駆的なP2PソフトウェアWinnyの開発者を逮捕したことで、日本のP2P技術は致命的な打撃を受けた。こうした萎縮効果による機会損失は、Googleの時価総額だけを考えても20兆円。日本のレコード業界全体の売り上げの40年分だ。こうした経済効果を計算に入れれば、(*)式の不等号は、むしろ左辺<<右辺になっていると考えられる。
当ブログで何度も書いてきたように、日本経済が長期衰退に入った最大の原因は、90年代に退場すべきだったゾンビ企業に多額の国費を投入して延命する一方、過剰規制によってイノベーションや起業家精神を殺してきたことにある。著作権の過剰保護が情報産業のボトルネックになっているという認識は、経済財政諮問会議にも経産省にも、知的財産戦略本部にさえある。そういう日本経済についての視野もITの知識もなく、声の大きい業界団体(それは天下り先でもある)の話ばかり聞いて権利強化を急ぐ文化庁に著作権法を所管させていていいのか、という問題もシンポジウムでは考えたい。
For those who are interested, the symposium which Ikeda-san mentions is to be held on December 26th at room 201 of the Graduate School of Film Producing in Shibuya, Tokyo (map [ja]), from 18:30 to 20:00 (doors open at 18:00), and will feature a number of speakers including Ikeda-san himself. People interested in attending should send an email to MIAU (Movement for the Internet Active Users) at info AT miau.jp (with name, affiliation, and contact details) before midnight of December 25th. The talk will be in Japanese only.
0 comments · »»

Here is a holiday season story (RUS) that's got very little of the traditional holiday spirit in it. Posted by LJ user souffrante and accompanied by Valeriy Leushev's photos, it's as much about Russian bloggers' childhood memories as it is about globalization, consumer nationalism, bad management, labor rights and the power of blogging.
Why one should buy Russian-made glass New Year tree decorations
Do you know how the real [Christmas] balls are made?
Imagine a huge factory, with huge machines puffing, spitting out identical shiny balls, then a conveyer belt with these balls moving on it, and then ultra-modern pulverizers pouring paint over the balls, and then, as they enter a special chamber, special squirts of paint are being sprayed on them from all directions, creating a complex pattern. As the balls continue on their way along the conveyer belt, they get fanned over and dry fast. And finally, at the very end of the conveyer belt, they fall down into boxes in straight rows and are sealed down by a robot, the wonder of modern technology.
And now stop thinking about silly thoughts.
Take a glass ball that was made at Yolochka [Little Fir Tree] enterprise and look at it closely, try to sense WHAT it is that you're holding in your hands. Feel the soul that the Russian women - often disabled - have poured into it, the women who have been working at the Christmas tree decorations factory for many-many years, bringing festivity into every home. These people have made this ball WITH THEIR HANDS. With their hands alone.
So do you know how the real [Christmas] balls are made?
I'll tell you. So that you don't feel like buying ugly Chinese-made plastic [mass-produced trash] anymore.
I think it would be good if you share this with your friends, and we, together, support national producer this way =)
[two photos and text omitted]
By the end of the Soviet period, the factory acquired automatic equipment, but it never got installed and, in the years of the economic decline of the 1990s, it became inoperative.
The factory drops you into the atmosphere of the first [Five-Year Plans], or perhaps even the end of the 19th century. New Year's decorations are being created in the toughest of conditions. It's hard to stand the lack of fresh air and the burning hot air of the tiny rooms where glass forms are blown - yet this is where people spend the whole day working.
Some elderly female worker even like to scare their grandkids this way: “If you don't study well, you'll end up working at Yolochka!”
The first section of the factory is the hot one. Here, 50 female glass-blowers toil in semi-darkness, noise and heat, for 6-8 thousand rubles [approx. $240-320] a month, mouthblowing decoration molds with the help of gas burners. Their workday lasts eight hours. In this time, each worker has to produce 200-250 molds, depending on the form of the future decoration.
[photo omitted]
What's difficult to achieve is the preciseness: the ball's diameter, for example, cannot deviate for more than 1-3 mm. It's impossible to work here without some special instinct. If the result is somewhat distorted, the ball is thrown away. To become a good glass-blower, one has to study for six months and then work for no less than two years.
[three photos and text omitted]
Here, all decorations are painted by the real masters. Hand-painted. Sometimes it takes a few hours to complete one ball, and sometimes the whole day, depending on the complexity of the picture. There is an extreme shortage of masters. It is not easy to learn this craft.
[three photos and text omitted]
The balls are packed and delivered to stores, where they are being pushed away from the shelves by the Chinese plastic that's being produced by millions by the soulless machines.
And these balls are handmade, practically each one of them is unique! Exclusive stuff, being sold for 100 rubles [$4] apiece. Foreigners take away bags of these balls when they come to the factory on a guided tour - in Europe such a miracle would cost [a lot more].
And we don't value them…
[…]
This post has received 467 responses. Below are some of them:
losch:
To avoid offending the Chinese, all this stuff could be hung on their mass-produced artificial fir trees.
***
nmoshina:
Thank you for the story! I'll definitely buy these decorations now!
***
winnie_the_bass:
The make boxer pants the same way. Only there are no glass-blowers there, though the rest is the same: sleepy hens dressed in green robes sit behind sewing machines that grew outdated a hundred years ago, with paint peeling off them, and work with their hands, with their hands - handmade. And the result is the same: pale, unappealing Soviet nothing that no one wants.
***
Anonymous:
Guided tours, yes. It's especially educating for the kids. These balls are sold there, too. [For practically nothing.] So strange: first you see how it is all made, then you learn how much it ends up costing. […]
***
shakheed:
My mother used to work at a Christmas tree decorations factory in the Soviet times. And until I was 7 or so, I thought that she knew Ded Moroz [Father Frost, Santa Claus] in person.
***
t0syara:
That [Christmas] balls in Russia are made manually is nothing but a sign of backwardness of our industry. Mass production of decorations shouldn't be manual. Only exclusive decorations.
***
mike_steinberg:
[…] But I doubt that many of those present here […] are ready to pay the real price for handmade goods […]. That the store/factory doesn't have the energy/brains to organize sales properly - it has nothing to do with the emotional but meaningless story. […]
***
maxxgol:
Yes, you're right - it would've been easier for them to arrange export of smaller quantities and get a lot more money for it, than force the disabled to toil for kopecks - though […] where else would a disabled person go. […] And, just like you, I'm sure no one here would buy one ball for 2,000 rubles [$80].
***
andrey_larin:
In a civilized country, people like these would be living a lot more decently.
souffrante:
Absolutely.
eldhenn
In a “civilized” country people would be living the same way. But the factory would have an owner instead who'd be buying himself a yacht every year. And we'd paying a hundred for a ball, right. A hundred euros.
[…]
yahaha:
The country's not the problem, but this one specific company is. A total lack of normal management. No desire to make production automatic and to develop it. No knowledge of how to encourage workers by means of normal salaries. The lack of a trade union that could have reason with snotty owners. Et cetera…
***
Anonymous:
Thanks you for the story. I've reconsidered the notion of a “Russian patriot.” Because here in Ukraine this expression has turned into a swearword a long time ago :( […]
***
ovalov:
Interesting advertisement for the [Christmas] balls…
souffrante:
I tried hard =P Selflessly, by the way =)
ovalov:
No, no, I'm not hinting at anything. Even if you've been paid to do it, it's still very sincere!
souffrante:
No one paid anything for this, okay… We were just working on an innovation management case at the university, using this company as an example. And we got so emotionally involved with it that we decided to help in some way.
And here is an update (RUS), posted two days later, on Dec. 15:
1 comment · »»Yolochka's business will improve.
As of now, my post has been read by 81,936 people at fishki.net site alone. At copypast.ru site - 2,513 people. Plus LJ, LiveInternet and other blogs. […]
THANK YOU.
[…]
If you're looking for Free Spirit she'll be down by the river…
“For most Barbadians who have not become completely apathetic, this general election will be one of the most interesting since Independence in 1966″: Barbados Underground reports that the island's Prime Minister has set a date for elections.
Rick Lowe at WeblogBahamas.com wonders if the island's air traffic controllers are on a go-slow.
Kubatana blog on the Zimbabwe's currency fiasco: “So, I’m not sure what it says about the Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono’s attachment issues, that he’s not willing to let go of a few zeroes in our currency and make all of our lives a whole lot simpler by introducing some new notes as part of his Sunrise II.”
AfricaBeat on the Batwa from the Democratic Republic of Congo: “The Batwa people were traditionally hunter-gatherers. In Eastern Congo, they lived off what the forest provided, until prolonged warfare and the creation of national parks ended their way of life.”
Bangkok Pundit analyzes the latest results of exit poll data and the actual election results. The PPP or People's Power Party, considered by many as the incarnation of the banned Thai Rak Thai is leading the polls.
Real Life Thailand does not like the possible candidate favored by the latest exit poll data in Thailand.
Sérgio Amadeu [pt] publishes a picture of a GNU/Linux computing class, with a difference: there students are middle age learners. “I have learned a lot with this research, which has changed my concepts about learning and about the capacity to dream and project a better world”.
Orlando Castro [pt] welcomes the Cuban doctors that will work in Huambo, an Angolan province with a population of over 2 million people and a doctor for every 40,183 patients. “People need doctors, no matter what nationality they have (…) If Cubans, instead of Portuguese for example, are available, there should be no reservations about it”.
Saudi Jeans comments on the world's fascination with the relationship of Saudis with video sharing site YouTube. “Now this fascination is not limited to Saudis as YouTube has become an international phenomenon in short time, but as with almost everything else, outsiders seem to think that our country is a piece from outer space and not a part of this world, and anything we do is worthy of attention and newspapers headlines,” he writes.
Leila Abu Saba pays tribute to Arab American journalist Aziz Shihab, originally from Palestine, who died in Texas.
The Burma Review blog quotes from the editor of Burma Dialogue on the lessons from the uprising in Burma earlier this year.